THE Zimbabwean economy has experienced recessions in 2019 and 2020, with GDP estimated to have contracted by 6 percent and 4,1 percent, respectively (ministry of Finance estimates). The economic contraction has been a result of output losses in key sectors such as agriculture, mining, manufacturing and tourism.
The recession has largely been a result of shocks such as (i) prolonged drought episodes, (ii) Cyclone Idai and (iii) the Covid-19 pandemic. As part of its National Development Strategy 1 (NDS1), the government of Zimbabwe estimates that the economy will rebound by 7,4 percent in 2021 on the back of recovery in agriculture.
That said, the big question is whether the 7,4 percent growth estimate is realistic and if we should expect a V-shaped economic recovery this year. While Covid-19 vaccination programmes are ramping up across the globe and the great prize on offer is the chance of bringing the pandemic under control, there are still several risks. This year could be another one of unusual uncer
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