Zimbabwe’s economic growth unstable — ZimStat

ZIMBABWE’S gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates were inconsistent over the period 2019-2022, the latest data from ZimStat shows.
In its recent dissemination of the quarterly GDP estimates for the period, the country’s national statistics office noted that quarterly growth rates showed fluctuations in economic activity.
“In 2022, the first quarter recorded a slowdown of 16,1 percent, with sustained recoveries of 3,6 percent, 5,6 percent and 6,8 percent for the second, third, and fourth quarters, respectively,” ZimStat said.
This year, the fiscal authorities are expecting Zimbabwe’s economy to grow by 3,8 percent on the back of an improvement in the agricultural sector.
However, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently cut its 2023 growth forecasts for Zimbabwe to 2,5 percent from an earlier projection of 2,8 percent, amid rolling power cuts, currency volatility, and high borrowing costs. The new projection is in line with that of the African Development Bank, which expects growth to average 2,9 percent, but lower than the World Bank’s forecast of 3,6 percent.
The ZimStat report shows that in 2022, the agricultural industry recorded quarterly growth rates of -9,4 percent, 13 percent, 12,3 percent and 9,7 percent in the first (Q1), second (Q2), third (Q3), and fourth (Q4) quarters, respectively.
On a quarter-to-quarter basis, the mining industry grew by — 10,7 percent, 1,8 percent, 14,2 percent and 7,1 percent for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively, in 2022.
Manufacturing recorded growth rates of 2,1 percent, 47,7 percent and -0,8 percent for Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively, according to the report.
The wholesale and retail trade industry recovered from a negative growth rate of 27,1 percent to 1,6 percent in Q2, 6,7 percent in Q3 and 25,8 percent in Q4 of 2022, indicating strong demand for goods and services in the economy.
Electricity production recorded positive growth of 1,5 percent and 6,2 percent in Q1 and Q2 of 2022. Output, however, declined by 11,3 percent and 17,2 percent in Q3 and Q4, in that order.
Concerning water, on an annual basis, a significant share of water is usually produced in Q3 through Q4, which is the driest period of the year.
“In 2022, water production growth rates recovered to 6,5 percent and 33,2 percent in Q2 and Q3 of 2022. Production slightly declined by 8,9 percent in Q4,” read the report.
The growth rates for accommodation and food services were -5,7 percent, 35 percent, -1,6 percent and -9,5 percent for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 respectively. Output depends on quarterly changes in room occupancy. Output in the transport and storage industry is mainly driven by the volume of cargo and passengers transported.
The quarter-to-quarter growth rates for the transport and storage industry were -17,4 percent, 32,3 percent, -15,1 percent and 18,9 percent for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4, respectively.
Growth in information and communication, which is determined by the volume of voice, data and internet usage, recorded sustained growth rates of 2,5 percent, 11,5 percent and 13,5 percent in Q2, Q3 and Q4, respectively.
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