Farai Mabeza, Senior Staff Writer 
THE late start of this year’s rainy season is causing significant anxiety among both farmers and economic experts, amid rising fears for the country’s growth prospects going into 2024.
The late onset of the rains has been attributed to strong El Niño climate patterns, which are forecast to reach peak intensity as this year ends, and dissipate by mid 2024 — driving below-average rainfall across much of southern Africa.
Concerned experts who spoke to The Financial Gazette — the country’s number one business publication — this week said the rainfall deficits would likely result in below-average 2024 harvests across the region, including in surplus-producing countries such as South Africa.
Agriculture minister Anxious Masuka
As a result, the negative impact of the El Niño shocks during the 2023/24 rainy season, which include low labour opportunities and high food prices, were expected to offset recent gains emanating from the relative macro-economic stability that Zimbabwe has been enjoying.
The country’s lot has also not been helped by the fact that contributions from the equally key mining economic sector have recently taken a knock due to declining global commodity prices.
The president of the Zimbabwe Commercial Farmers Union (ZCFU), Shadreck Makombe, said while preparations for this cropping season were continuing, the dry spell that started in September was dampening prospects.
“The rainfall situation is very bad. It seems El Niño is biting very hard. So, the preparation that we are talking about is mostly applicable to those who have irrigation facilities.
“I wouldn’t say that as a country we are doing enough per se to climate-proof the agriculture sector, but I can say the country is trying,” he said.
On his part, veteran economist Tony Hawkins predicted a significant decline in the country’s projected economic growth.
“If El Niño is as severe as some reports suggest, then economic growth will slow down to two percent or less, and inflation will remain high due to high food and energy prices,” he said.
Another prominent analyst, Eddie Cross, said a late start to the season would reduce yield potentials, which would reduce output in 2024.
“If the pundits are right, we have to expect and plan for extreme weather, both droughts and floods. But Zimbabwe is well positioned to handle drought conditions if it uses the 10 000 dams on farms and the well-defined national river systems.
Eddie Cross Cross is a former member of Parliament and a member of the RBZ’s Monetary Policy Committee.
“We need to put at least two million hectares under irrigation and treat that as the core of the industry,” Cross said.
“This season has started late, but the ITCZ (Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone) has formed well over Zambia and should become active in Zimbabwe shortly.
“A late start to the season reduces yield potentials and this will undoubtedly reduce agricultural output in 2024.
“However, agriculture is no longer such a major contributor to the wider economy, and the impact will be relatively muted,” Cross added.
Yet another analyst, Rufaro Hozheri, expressed grave concerns over the potential impact of the current weather conditions on the country’s import bill.
“The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed that Zimbabwe might experience below average rains, which would potentially lead to a drought.
“We know that when we have a drought our import bill shoots up. On the other hand, exports are decreasing as commodity prices are falling. The overall picture doesn’t look so bright.
“I hope current national efforts to climate-proof agriculture materialise, because for the longest time we have read about it, but I am not sure we can all agree on the results. There is no doubt about the merits of climate-proofing agriculture considering how many droughts we have experienced in the last decade,” Hozheri said.
Economist Paison Tazvivinga described Zimbabwe’s economic prospects for the coming year as “challenging”, in large measure due to the current erratic rainfall patterns.
“The ongoing El Niño is expected to result in drier-than-average rainfall patterns, potentially exacerbating the situation and negatively impacting harvests.
Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, governor John Mangudya and Finance Minister Mthuli Ncube
“These climate-related challenges may further contribute to economic slowdown, posing risks to sectors that are dependent on agricultural productivity,” he said.
“Zimbabwe is actively intensifying its efforts to climate-proof agriculture, especially ahead of the 2023/24 summer farming season.
“In this regard, the government has initiated key projects, including irrigation infrastructure development in drier areas, to enhance resilience in the face of climate threats.
“However, to successfully transition to climate-smart agriculture, key strategies should include prioritising the widespread adoption of climate-smart agriculture (CSA) techniques among smallholder farmers, particularly in communal areas where further research is needed,” Tazvivinga added.
“Additionally, a comprehensive analysis of factors influencing the adoption of CSA technologies, especially at the local level, is crucial for guiding policymakers in designing effective interventions.
“To promote resilience and adaptation to a changing climate, there is a need to encourage and support smallholder farmers in implementing climate-smart practices that enhance their resilience and improve crop yields,” he also said.
Analyst Enock Rukarwa said the impact of El Niño-induced effects would dent the country’s economic growth considering the weight of agriculture and associated value chains to the economy.
“On the other hand, mining contribution will also be thinner as commodity prices have been bearish and are forecast to be broadly unchanged going into 2024, due to weakening global demand. The waning effects of these two critical economic clusters may drag economic growth under five percent without sufficient compensating effects from other economic sectors,” he said.
Economist Vince Musewe said natural phenomena such as droughts exposed Zimbabwe’s continued reliance on primary economic products.
“Sadly, our economy is still primarily product-based and, therefore, subject to some issues we cannot control, especially the weather. This threatens a significant portion of our GDP, including food security and the survival of most citizens. We have not learned from historical droughts and put into place the appropriate risk-mitigating measures.
“We can kiss goodbye to robust and inclusive growth for next year. We are not developing as a country in the way we think and operate,” Musewe said.
Economist Dawie Roodt said the challenges being experienced in the country were not unique to Zimbabwe, but also affected neighbouring countries such as South Africa.
“Of course, countries like Zimbabwe and South Africa are prone to severe droughts. We find that typically in southern Africa. It’s nothing new.
“The issue with Zimbabwe, and to a greater extent South Africa as well, is that although we are prone to drought one can prepare for droughts and make sure that one has the necessary infrastructure available to make sure that drought does not affect you that much.
“In the case of Zimbabwe because of, to a large extent, mismanagement … and much of that is also happening in South Africa … these countries are just not prepared for severe droughts.
“So, I am afraid that for a country like Zimbabwe that is dependent on agriculture things are likely to be quite bad for the economy, and the same goes for countries like Botswana,” Roodt said.
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