TO ACHIEVE its ambitious Vision 2030, Zimbabwe must prioritise policy stability and a consistent exchange rate, according to former Zimbabwe Economics Society president Nigel Chanakira.
Vision 2030, as outlined by the World Bank, seeks to raise Zimbabwe to an upper-middle-income economy, with a targeted gross national income per capita of between US$3,89 and US$12,06.
“We want to attain the goal of being an upper-middle-income economy by 2030, but we will not reach that goal with the policies and the exchange rate doing what it is doing,” Chanakira warned.
Nigel Chanakira
“The moment the rate fluctuates, we cannot invest.”
Policy inconsistencies and exchange rate instability have dampened economic growth by generating uncertainty and eroding investor confidence, a trend that Chanakira believes is incompatible with achieving the 2030 vision. He noted that for Zimbabwe to reach the upper-middle-income threshold, the economy must grow by 15 percent per year, a pace currently unmet.
“We cannot match it,” he explained.
“In the last two or three years, we did not achieve that growth because of challenges like drought. It means we must be on steroids if we are going to grow and become an upper-middle-income economy by 2030.”
Despite these challenges, Treasury is optimistic, projecting a substantial GDP recovery in 2025, driven largely by anticipated improvements in the agricultural sector. Nonetheless, Zimbabwe’s GDP growth is expected to slow this year due to factors such as drought, lower mining prices, and macroeconomic instability, though a rebound is anticipated between 2024 and 2029.
Chanakira also highlighted the significant infrastructure deficit, with Zimbabwe facing an expenditure shortfall of between US$80 million and US$120 million. He stressed the importance of establishing a long-term yield curve extending beyond 2030, which he argued is essential for sustainable infrastructure development.
“To attract capital to Zimbabwe, we need to offer a 15-year bond and honor that obligation,” he said.
“If capital is to come in for infrastructure, allow us to set long terms. When you can create capital with a 15-year horizon and offer a meaningful internal rate of return, it becomes viable. This access to long-term capital is what will help us achieve Vision 2030.”
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