THE rains that have lashed the country over the past few days have eased fears of another devastating drought, with a knock-on effect throughout the whole economy.
In this regard, business leaders, economists and senior government officials who spoke to The Financial Gazette — the country’s number one business publication and prime voice for industry and commerce — were hopeful this week that sustained rainfalls would lift agriculture, bolster power generation and stabilise many other pivotal economic sectors.
The chief executive of the Zimbabwe National Chamber of Commerce (ZNCC), Chris Mugaga, was among the key stakeholders who said the improved rains had broad positive implications for agriculture and the wider economy.
“It is predicted that we will receive normal to above-normal rain this season. Obviously, the only issue is that the rain started a bit late, because normally our rains start in November.
“Good rains mean more electricity, as Zimbabwe relies heavily on Kariba for its hydro-power generation.
“Another season without sufficient water would have been disastrous. The cost of power would have continued to soar due to reliance on strained thermal sources,” Mugaga added.
“Additionally, good rains could free up the budget. Treasury’s forecast of a 145 percent revenue increase is ambitious, and hinges significantly on rainfall,” he said further.
Economist Vincent Moyo echoed Mugaga’s sentiments, saying the improved rainfall was “good news” for the country.
“With normal rainfall for the whole season, there is hope for improved performance in agriculture, which is one of the productive sectors in the country.
“Water supply, food security and agriculture-based raw materials are expected to increase and boost the economy as a whole.
“However, all this depends on the continuity of normal rains and the reliability of the forecast,” Moyo said.
This comes after last season’s El Niño-induced drought led to widespread crop failures, reducing food production to critically low levels.
Maize yields, a staple crop, were especially hard hit, resulting in the government increasing imports to stave off food shortages in the country.
The drought also negatively impacted tobacco, a major export crop, thereby slashing much-needed foreign currency earnings.
The drought’s ripple effects extended beyond agriculture, as the manufacturing and trade sectors that rely on farm produce experienced sharp declines, exacerbating Zimbabwe’s economic instability.
Investment analyst, Enock Rukarwa, noted the agricultural sector’s centrality to Zimbabwe’s economy yesterday and how good rains would “lift the country”.
“Over 70 percent of Zimbabwe’s population relies on agriculture for food security and economic development.
“Key crops like maize and tobacco, a major export, are rain-fed.
“Adequate rainfall also creates an enabling environment for reduced power outages and improved agricultural output, which is crucial for sustaining the economy,” Rukarwa said.
Economist Stevenson Dhlamini also pointed to agriculture’s significant contribution to the country’s economy, saying it accounted for about 12 percent of GDP and 40 percent of exports.
“The La Niña climatic conditions anticipated this year will positively impact economic growth. The agro-industrial sector will improve and employment levels will rise, especially among SMEs,” he said.
Economic analyst, Nyasha Kaseke, also highlighted the interconnectedness of rainfall and the country’s economic health.
“Zimbabwe is an agro-based economy and everything depends on the rains we receive and their frequency.
“If the forecast by the Meteorological Services Department holds true, we could see a good harvest.
“But prolonged dry spells could drastically affect output, negatively impacting GDP and production levels,” Kaseke said.
Another analyst, Victor Bhoroma, also underscored the importance of good rains for strategic crops and the country.
“Horticulture crops, tobacco and cotton exports earn the country over $1 billion annually.
“Normal rains ensure optimal production, which reduces the import bill, curbs inflation and prevents production stoppages during trade challenges or geopolitical conflicts,” he said.
However, concerns remain about the short length of this year’s rainy season.
The chief executive of the SMEs Association of Zimbabwe, Farai Mutambanengwe, warned that while the current rains were welcome, their duration could limit the agriculture sector’s recovery.
“The rains are expected to end early in March. Farmers may need to focus on short-season varieties or small grains requiring less rain.
“This could dampen agricultural recovery and put continued pressure on the economy,” he said.
Veteran economist, Eddie Cross, also noted the damage which had been inflicted by the late rains.
“The hot and dry December decimated the dryland crop in many districts. January rains won’t recover that lost potential.
“The key issue now is keeping our fingers crossed that we receive enough rain to fill our dams for winter irrigation,” he said.
Economic analyst, Prosper Chitambara, was among those who said that the rains’ economic impact extended beyond agriculture.
“Improved hydro-electric generation due to sufficient rainfall will positively impact the economy given that energy is a critical enabler for businesses.
“It also reduces pressures on public spending through social protection measures. Ultimately, agriculture’s positive externalities will bolster other key sectors,” he said.
The Permanent Secretary for the Ministry of Agriculture, Obert Jiri, echoed the same sentiments.
“Regular precipitation reduces the need for irrigation, saving resources and lowering costs for farmers.
“Favourable rain conditions significantly contribute to agricultural productivity and sustainability, ensuring that we meet food and cash crop demands,” he said.
While the outlook is optimistic, experts also agree on the need for long-term solutions to the changing climate, with Mugaga stressing the importance of investing in water harvesting infrastructure.
“Zimbabwe’s total rainfall is often sufficient, but poor distribution leads to crop failures. Over-reliance on rain-fed agriculture is a significant vulnerability.
“Harvesting water and building dams are critical for sustainable agricultural development,” he said.
On his part, economic analyst Kudakwashe Munemo was hopeful that this rainy season would be good.
“If the forecast materialises, it will be a milestone year for Zimbabwe’s agro-based economy. Supplying the value chain with raw materials will enhance capacity utilisation and economic stability,” he said.
More than 60 percent of the country’s population relies on farming, directly or indirectly, for their income. Agriculture also fuels other sectors, including manufacturing and trade, making it a linchpin of the country’s economy.
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